Market Outlook

The best energy solutions emerge from many factors. A prime example is the energy market itself — something our team is well-versed in considering on your behalf. Here's an overview.

Natural Gas

NYMEX Natural Gas Pricing

The February 2023 contract settled at $3.109/MMBtu. 

The March 2023 contract was trading around $2.45/MMBtu (as of publish date).

Source: CME Group

Natural Gas Storage

Current BCF in Storage (2022 vs 2021):

Week Ending Total BCF Week Ending Total BCF
06-Jan-23 2,902 07-Jan-22 3,016
13-Jan-23 2,820 14-Jan-22 2,810
20-Jan-23 2,734 21-Jan-22 2,591
27-Jan-23 2,583 28-Jan-22 2,323

There is about 11% more in underground storage now than there was at this time last year.

Source: EIA

Weather

6-10 Day

8-14 Day

Source:NOAA/ National Weather Service

Market News

Wholesale U.S. electricity prices were volatile in 2022

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55139

With extreme weather events, the average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the United States rose and were volatile throughout much of 2022. The limited availability of coal to substitute for higher-priced natural gas also contributed to the high prices.

Average cost of wholesale U.S. natural gas in 2022 highest since 2008

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55119

In 2022, the natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub averaged $6.45 per MMBtu, the highest annual average since 2008!  Check out the article for specific price fluctuations per quarter!

EIA forecasts lower wholesale U.S. natural gas prices in 2023 and 2024

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55219

The EIA forecasted that the natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub will average $4.90 per MMBtu in 2023 which is more than $1.50 per MMBtu lower than the 2022 average. The EIA also expects prices to stay nearly the same in 2024 as dry natural gas production continues to grow in the US and outpaces domestic natural gas demand and exports for most of the year.

Constellation, NRG and other generators urge FERC to reject PJM’s mid-capacity auction rule change

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/constellation-nrg-ferc-pjm-capacity-auction-proposal/640926/

Major generators and clean energy trade groups are urging federal regulators to reject PJM’s proposal to change capacity market rules during an auction stating it would undermine certainty in wholesale power markets.  On the other hand,  PJM’s market monitor and state regulators generally support the proposal, as it would address a flaw in rules that PJM said would lead to a 400% increase over what they’d have expected for capacity prices in the Delmarva Power South area.

2023 Outlook: US power sector trends to watch

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/2023-us-power-sector-trends-renewables-reliability-FERC-cybersecurity-hydrogen-nuclear-storage-EVs/640307/

Utility Dive identified 9 trends to watch in 2023: FERC; Congress; cybersecurity; reliability; renewable energy; Hydrogen; energy storage; nuclear power and EVs.  Check out the article to see a summary of each trend!

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